LEXINGTON, MA (January 22, 2010) -- Electric vehicles – plug-in hybrids and battery powered – will comprise nearly 20 percent of the global market for light vehicles in 2030, according to findings in a study on the business case for Plugged-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) by automotive industry analysts at IHS Global Insight.
The IHS Global Insight white paper, "Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case," forecasts an 8.6 percent market share for plug-in hybrids and a 9.9 percent share for battery-electrics.
"The advantages of electric vehicles are numerous – the multiplicity of energy sources, reduced emissions, reduced noise, the possibility of reduced operating costs – but so too are the challenges," said Philip Gott, director of Automotive Science and Technology in IHS Global Insight's Automotive Services Group.
The development of powerful, long-lasting batteries and ready access to a reliable power grid for recharging remain the critical issues for the success of the battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle of the future, according to the white paper. In addition to technology limitations, high costs and expectations of consumers' accustomed to internal combustion engine vehicles must also be overcome before the plugged-in vehicles achieve significant acceptance.
Gott said the major challenges to be overcome if the vehicles are to be successful in the marketplace are consumers' preference for long range, versatile vehicles; cost and uncertainty about battery life; perceptions of safety hazard; and adequacy of the power grid.
There are two kinds of PEVs: pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) powered only by an on-board battery recharged from the electric power grid, and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that combine an internal combustion engine with a battery that can also be charged from the grid and run for as long as 100 miles before needing the internal combustion engine.
BEVs, the study concludes, will find a natural home in urban environments, like those found in the global mega cities, while PHEVs will play a transitional role in suburban environments where range anxiety is a real concern. At issue is whether consumers will continue to use personal motor vehicles for work and play as they do today, or whether there will be strong moves away from the extensive use of privately owned cars in urban areas, accompanied by significant third-party influence changing consumer attitudes towards cars and how they are used.
The pathway for commercialization for these new generation vehicles highlights the needed role of government and the utility sector. Consumers are expected early on to be more attracted to PHEVs because of their range and convenience, the study said, but as the infrastructure evolves, many early urban PHEV owners will realize they are running predominantly in full electric mode and a large-scale switch to BEVs could begin.
For a copy of the abstract of the white paper, "Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case," go to www.ihsglobalinsight.com/pluggedin.
About IHS Global Insight's Automotive Group
IHS Global Insight’s Automotive Group is comprised of 115 analysts located in 12 offices in eight countries across three continents. Collectively, the Automotive Group has over 650 years of experience working in the automotive industry, many with previous experience in analytical, planning, engineering, and management positions at over 40 different vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, and automotive consulting and information companies. IHS Global Insight's automotive analysts and consultants are dedicated to providing superior-quality information, analysis, forecasts, and advisory services to organizations involved with the automotive industry. They provide understanding of the market forces and trends through the provision of reliable, timely, and accurate intelligence and assessments, in supporting clients in the development of more effective business strategies and the achievement of better financial results. Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/IHSAutomotive.
About IHS Global Insight
IHS Global Insight (www.ihsglobalinsight.com), an IHS company, provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, IHS Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted information and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: Energy, Product Lifecycle, Security, and Environment supported by Macroeconomics. IHS employs about 4,100 people in 28 countries.
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